How VACCINE influences URBANIZATION

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And so there is a really good fed study, a few about a year or less than a year ago, the Cleveland fed that talked about. This urban outbound activity and and found that the decline in our, the increase in migration numbers wasn't. Wasn't solely big from people leaving. It really was people not coming into the city because of fear of our safety, for health reasons that there was a sort of label attached to urban markets that high density means
high chance of infection and, in New York one thing I've been saying since the early days of a lockdown was, the infection rates in New York Manhattan saw the highest outbound migration, the sort of narrative in air quotes, fleeing the city . But what's missing has been inbound migration because of the fear of safety.
And, this is what I'm calling a V-shape recovery, which is B for vaccine. The increase in the vaccine is expanding the inbound migration at the city, which makes net bound, net migration, less negative. And that's been the half of the equation that's been missing across the country.


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